The Influence of Chemical Fertilizer Tariff Adjustment on Phosphate Fertilizer Market and Post-Market Analysis

　　The adjustment of chemical fertilizer tariffs has affected the market. The price of phosphate fertilizers is generally stable this week, and there is basically no demand in the country. Enterprises mainly focus on storage to prepare fertilizers for autumn.

　　1. This week's attention:

The tariff adjustment is specific to the cancellation of special export tariffs on ***, phosphate rock, synthetic ammonia, phosphoric acid, ammonium chloride, superphosphate, binary compound fertilizer and other products, and the *** continues to be levied on *** 20% export tariff, 10%-35% tentative export tariff will continue to be levied on other phosphorus and phosphate rock, and chemical fertilizer products such as synthetic ammonia, phosphoric acid, ammonium chloride, superphosphate, binary compound fertilizer (including industrial A 10% provisional export tariff is uniformly levied on the use of chemical fertilizers. Extend the off-season period when urea, monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate are levied export tariffs, extend the application time of the off-season export tax rate for urea by one month, and extend the off-season export tax rate for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate by one and a half months. Regarding the news of the adjustment of export tariffs on some products from July 1, Yang Chunsheng, vice chairman of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, believes that the main role of this policy is to compensate companies for confidence, because companies have been appealing for a long time, but the specific effect depends on the Wait and see. In the current market situation where the supply of chemical fertilizers exceeds the demand, making appropriate adjustments will not affect the interests of the public. To ensure agricultural production, we must first ensure that chemical fertilizer companies can survive, but whether such adjustments can be useful or not requires further observation.

　　2. Domestic market:

　　In the monoammonium market, the domestic monoammonium price continues to move forward at the bottom and has been basically stable for a long time. The mainstream factory price of 55 powder monoammonium is 1540-1600 yuan/ton, and the Shandong arrival price is 1600-1650 yuan/ton. The price of 55 pellets is around RMB 1,650/ton, 57% of them are quoted at RMB 1,600-1,700/ton, and 60% are quoted at RMB 1,750-1,800/ton. The current operating rate of enterprises has increased compared with the previous period, at 50-60%, mainly because enterprises have begun to prepare fertilizer for autumn. In terms of demand, during the price consolidation period, some dealers and compound fertilizer manufacturers felt that the price had bottomed out, and a small amount of goods were taken. In the near future, they were mainly sent to Henan, Hebei and Shandong. But from the overall market point of view, there is no particular improvement.

　　Diammonium market: The mainstream quotation of 57% diammonium is 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is about 1800 yuan/ton. Another market news says that the price sent from Hubei to North China is about 1700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of 62% diammonium is 1900-2000 yuan/ton, 64 diammonium in Yunnan and Guizhou is 2300-2400 yuan/ton, and the arrival price in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan/ton. After the corn planting is over, there is basically no demand in the whole country. The enterprises mainly focus on short-term storage, and basically adopt the situation of pre-collection and joint sales by the Federal Reserve, and send the goods to various places.

　　General calcium market: Keeping up with the fertilizer market, the general calcium market has not improved recently, and the stocks of various companies are generally high. Currently, 12% powdered calcium is 300-350 yuan / ton, and 16% powdered calcium is in

　　International market: In May, the production of diammonium/monoammonium in the United States increased by 3% over the previous month, but decreased by 17% year-on-year. In May, the output of diammonium was 710,000 tons, and the output of monoammonium was 272,000 tons. Production in January-May this year totaled 4.1 million tonnes, down 24% (1.27 million tonnes) year-on-year. Recently, the CIF price of diammonium sent from China to Vietnam rose to $350-360 per ton, up $10. The net export price FOB of the port of Tampa in Vietnam is about US$285/ton. In late June, the international price of heavy calcium continued to drop by 2-10 US dollars per ton. At present, the FOB price of heavy calcium in Tunisia was 250-265, and the FOB price of Morocco was 260-275.

　　Upstream dynamics:

　　In terms of phosphate rock, Yunnan area: the pit price of 28-30 grade phosphate rock is 150-200 yuan / ton, the transaction is not good, the mining is stable, the mine still has inventory, and the phosphate rock is exported to Sichuan and used for own use. The shipment situation is general. The 28-grade phosphate rock in Guizhou is 150-170 yuan / ton. The mines have spot supply, and there are more for their own use. A small amount is sent to South China, and the ore grade is higher. Currently in Leibo and Qingping areas in Sichuan, the ore grade is still not very high, basically at 26-28 grade. Under the circumstance of insufficient demand, the operating rate of manufacturers is not very high. The international market share of ore increases. It is expected that the market will recover. The market will warm up.

　　The oversupply of resources in the domestic sulfur market continues, and the weak downstream demand in the market has not substantially improved. According to incomplete statistics from Zhuo Chuang, the current domestic oversupply of sulfur resources is at least 3.5 million tons, which is quite time-consuming to digest. Including different degrees of discounts, the market has not substantially improved in the short term. At present, the mainstream domestic sulphur transaction is 550-600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream sales price of the terminal is 470-520 yuan / ton. Zhuo Chuang expects that the market will maintain the majority of manufacturers in the near future. Stable, individual manufacturers adjusted slightly, the situation is still not optimistic.

　　Market outlook forecast: The phosphate fertilizer market in June will end in a dull and stable state. With the adjustment of tariffs and the beginning of fertilizer preparation in autumn, it is expected that the market will pick up after July.